Business & Markets

Dangote’s $20B Refinery To Propel Him Into Top 50 Global Billionaires By 2025

Dangote’s $20B Refinery To Propel Him Into Top 50 Global Billionaires By 2025

Aliko Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest individual with a net worth of $16.2 billion (Bloomberg index), could join the world’s top 100 billionaires list by 2024 and top 50 by 2025, propelled by his groundbreaking $20 billion refinery project.

Nairametrics research highlights the profound impact of the refinery on Dangote’s valuation.

Dangote Cement, the primary revenue generator, generated N1.6 trillion ($2 billion) in 2022 and is one of the major contributors to the billionaire’s wealth.

In contrast, with the refinery anticipated to achieve an annual revenue of $27 billion, the prospects strongly favour a substantial surge in Aliko Dangote’s wealth by 2024.

Refinery revenue is also likely to be mostly in US dollars due to its export potential, helping protect his wealth against currency depreciation.

What experts are saying

Kelvin Emmanuel, Director of O & A Market, shared insights with Nairametrics, highlighting Dangote’s strategic financial decision.

For instance, in collaboration with Carlyle, Dangote established a family office aimed at safeguarding his holdings in Dangote Industries Limited and shielding his net worth from the unpredictable fluctuations of the Nigerian Naira.

  • “I expected that when he finishes drawing down on the remaining 20% of his external debt, as well as the domestic debt from the proposed initial public offering, a share of the net export proceeds will propel him into the list of the top 15 richest people globally within five years of operation,”explained Emmanuel.

Emele Oden, a business and markets analyst, echoed this sentiment, foreseeing the refinery converting a fraction of the estimated $27 billion revenue into profit.

  •  I expect the refinery to be able to convert 15% to 30% of that revenue to profit, going by the trend within the group. In that case, you can imagine the leapfrog to Dangote’s net worth, in the short to medium term.
  • “Forbes ranked Aliko as the richest African in 2023, with an estimated net worth of $16.2 billion. It’s the 12th time he’s so ranked and it put him as 112th world’s richest billionaires. I expect that if the refinery operates as planned and can generate good revenue and profit by the end of 2024 to 2025, we should expect Aliko to rank among the first 100 richest globally” 

Meanwhile, Indian billionaire, Mukesh Ambani, who owns one of the world’s largest oil refining complexes is worth $92 billion and the company has an annual revenue of over $100 billion in the year to March 2023.

The 66-year-old Aliko Dangote whose 86% stake in Dangote Group put him on the global billionaire list as Africa’s richest has had quite a busy year.

Related Topic: Nigeria’s total debt rises slightly, hits N88trn

Dangote’s Networth

At the onset of 2023, Aliko Dangote’s net worth stood at a robust $18.7 billion, as per Bloomberg’s billionaire estimates.

  • By May, this figure experienced an upward trajectory, reaching $20.5 billion, and further scaling heights to $21.2 billion in June.
  • However, the financial landscape took a downturn following the announcement by the federal government, led by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, signalling the unification of the naira.
  • This policy shift precipitated a substantial devaluation, with the naira shedding nearly half of its value in official markets against the US dollar.

This led to Dangote’s net worth falling by $4.12 billion, which adversely threw him off the top 100 list of global billionaires.

  • Things took a more serious turn when his net worth dropped even further and Forbes declared him no longer Africa’s richest man on June 18, as Nairametrics reported.
  • South African billionaire, Johann Rupertsoon gained ground and was named the richest man in Africa, taking over Dangote’s prestigious title which he had held for 12 years.

Regardless of these setbacks, Dangote made a comeback in July as Africa’s richest man. Ever since the performance of his group of companies has significantly impacted on his valuation.

With a current net worth of $16.2 billion which has been fluctuating due to the stock price, he would likely close the year with a $17 billion valuation. Particularly as Dangote Cement is on track to surpass its 2022 revenue(N1.6 trillion), with its 9 months 2023 financial report posting N1.51 billion.

The refinery was worth around $20 billion when NNPC acquired 20% of the equity a few years ago. Dangote is thought to own between 70 and 80% of the refinery which on paper places his ownership value in the refinery at around $14 billion.

However, Nairametrics opines the billionaire’s value in the refinery could be over $20 billion based on the revenue estimates of the refinery. This could take his valuation to over $36 billion placing him at number 37 based on current ranking.

Optics

A businessman to the core, Aliko Dangote has always been ambitious in his business goals. From owning one of Nigeria’s largest manufacturing companies to the launch of his oil refinery, this feat further establishes his place as one of Nigeria’s top oil and gas barons.

  • Following the launch of his billion-dollar refinery project scheduled for operation in 2024, the Dangote refinery promises a diverse range of fuels and products.
  • Particularly as Africa’s largest single-train refinery with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day,
  • It is expected to give the country’s oil and gas sector a facelift. Other products include aviation fuel, kerosene, diesel, urea, and polypropylene.
  • With a focus on meeting domestic needs, the refinery’s self-sufficient marine facility enhances global connectivity.

All products will adhere to Euro V specifications, reflecting a commitment to high environmental and quality standards. The refinery will also be listed on the Nigerian Exchange Limited according to an earlier report by Nairametrics.

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