Russian Ruble Surges Against US Dollar Despite New Sanctions. Russian Ruble Strengthens Against US Dollar: What’s Behind the Unexpected Turnaround?
The Russian ruble showed resilience on Friday as market analysts assessed the implications of the latest sanctions imposed by the United States on Moscow in response to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The ruble’s performance remained robust, trading not far from a three-month high, buoyed by foreign currency sales and surging interest rates. At 0755 GMT, the ruble exhibited a 0.3% increase against the US dollar, reaching 93.10, maintaining proximity to its recent peak of 91.6225, achieved on Wednesday.
Simultaneously, the ruble also saw a 0.3% uptick in value against the euro, settling at 99.06, and a 0.1% strengthening against the yuan, reaching 12.70. Although the ruble has now moved past the period of support stemming from month-end tax payments, which were due earlier in the week and typically involve exporters converting foreign exchange earnings to meet domestic obligations, President Vladimir Putin’s decree mandating foreign exchange sales for select exporters continues to support the currency.
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The ruble has been on an upward trajectory against the dollar since the announcement of this decree. Furthermore, the central bank’s unexpected decision to raise interest rates to 15% in late October has contributed to the ruble’s resilience. On Thursday, the United States introduced a comprehensive set of new sanctions against Russia, targeting its future energy capabilities, measures to evade sanctions, seven Russia-based banks, and numerous industrial enterprises.
The inclusion of additional banks in the sanctions further narrows the avenues for international trade payments, potentially leading to a decrease in imports. It also makes it more precarious for exporters to maintain foreign currency in overseas accounts, cautioned Dmitry Polevoy, head of investment at Locko-Invest. Polevoy suggested, “Sanctions could serve as a stabilizing factor for the ruble, aiding the central bank’s efforts to combat inflation.” However, he also cautioned that a substantial strengthening of the ruble might impact budget revenues, which have become increasingly dependent on the exchange rate due to energy-related income.
Brent crude oil, a key global benchmark and a mainstay of Russia’s exports, experienced a 0.4% increase, reaching $87.21 per barrel. Russian stock indexes reflected this positivity, with the dollar-denominated RTS index rising by 0.3% to 1,083.4 points and the ruble-based MOEX Russian index seeing a 0.2% increase, reaching 3,202.0 points.
